Investment Monthly
Key Takeaways:
House View
- Strong profits continue to drive momentum in global equities, but uncertainty surrounding the durability of AI capex, renewed geopolitical risks, and higher bond yields have the potential to drive episodic volatility
- A selective “broadening out” of performance and profits can benefit better-value regions like emerging markets, Europe, and Japan. The Fed backing away from hiking, possible yield caps, and deficit anxieties could all be catalysts for dollar weakness - which could be a boos for emerging markets
- In a “multi-polar” world with spikey inflation, it makes sense to “diversify the diversifiers”. Investors should consider “anti-bubble” parts of the market which may offer better value, and lower volatility in sell-offs
Macro Outlook
- Re-intensifying Middle East tensions have pushed oil and refined product prices higher; Hormuz traffic remains depressed. Elevated energy prices suggest inflation will be sticky for the rest of 2026
- US domestic demand is solid but K-shaped. AI is providing strong support for some forms of business investment and high-income consumers while other areas are lagging.
- AI and policy buffers have supported Asia’s growth, but it is exposed to the risk of global AI demand shifts and energy supply shocks. China’s growth is resilient amid technology and export strength, but imbalanced
Policy Outlook
- Policy uncertainty is high. Central banks are facing difficult growth-inflation trade-offs due to supply-side shocks. Fiscal and industrial policy is more activist, but elevated government debt is a constraint
- Federal Reserve Chair Warsh warned of “more work to do” if PCE inflation remains above its 2 per cent target. The ECB signalled a near-term rate rise, while the BoE shows little urgency to raise rates
- China’s policy is focused on balancing short-term macro stability with longer-term structural priorities. In Asia, relative exposure to AI and the energy shock is driving a varied pace and scale of policy support
Scenarios
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management as at September 2026.
House View
Markets have been resilient but uncertainty around the timing of AI payoffs, geopolitical tensions, and higher bond yields are all potential sources of volatility. A broadening out of profits growthis driving stronger performance in laggard sectors and regions, like Europe. Investors should “diversify the diversifiers” to help build portfolio resilience
- Equities Strong capex should keep AI-related profits flowing, but market performance can broaden out. Other sectors connected to the AI boom, both upstream and downstream, could be the next market leaders
- Government bonds – Longer-dated bond yields remain elevated amid spiky inflation, geopolitical risks, and fiscal “deficits forever”. But this has improved opportunities across fixed income, which could add ballast to portfolios
- Corporate bonds– Investment grade credit spreads remain tight amid robust fundamentals. High yield credit faces pressure from uneven US growth and geopolitics. We maintain a preference for higher quality
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Past performance does not predict future returns. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. You cannot invest directly in an index. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. House view represents a >12-month investment view across major asset classes in our portfolios. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at September 2026.
Asset class performance at a glance
It was a tale of two markets in August with long-duration government bonds suffering on concerns over the fiscal outlook and higher-for-longer rates. But developed market stocks advanced on continued AI enthusiasm and strong corporate profits. EM stocks were more mixed. Credit markets remained resilient, while gold and oil prices both rose
- Government bonds – Long duration sovereign bonds fell (yields rose) in response to uncertainty about “deficits forever” and whether growth can keep pace with interest costs. However, real yields and term premia are now “back to normal”
- Equities – Developed market equity indices were positive in August, with decent gains in the US, Japan, and Europe. Tech-heavy markets in Asia also performed well, but the “sleeping giant” markets of China and India were broadly flat
- Alternatives – The gold price rose sharply on US monetary and fiscal uncertainty, as well as ongoing geopolitical tensions. Oil prices continued to be volatile and closed the month higher, while real estate and infrastructure indices lost ground
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Past performance does not predict future returns. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Source: Bloomberg, all data above as at close of business 31 August 2026 in USD, total return, month-to-date terms. Note: Asset class performance is represented by different indices. Global Equities: MSCI ACWI Net Total Return USD Index. Global Emerging Market Equities: MSCI Emerging Market Net Total Return USD Index. Corporate Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global HY Total Return Index value unhedged. Bloomberg Barclays Global IG Total Return Index unhedged. Government bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Treasuries Total Return Index. JP Morgan EMBI Global Total Return local currency. Commodities and real estate: Gold Spot $/OZ, Other commodities: S&P GSCI Total Return CME. Real Estate: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global Index TR USD. Crypto: Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index.Macro scenarios
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, September 2026.
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, September 2026.
Economic outlook
Hawkish Warsh, ECB on track for another rise
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, consensus numbers from Bloomberg, September 2026.
Events calendar: H2 2026
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. Past performance does not predict future returns. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security.
Source: HSBC Asset Management, September 2026.
Investment Views
Asset class positioning
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at September 2026.
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at September 2026.
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. The views expressed above were held at the time of preparation and are subject to change without notice. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at September 2026.On Top of Investors’ Minds
It’s “La Rentrée!” But as investors return from holiday, what key questions are markets facing?
Stock markets have climbed a wall of worry in 2026. The US, Europe, and Japan have seen double-digit gains, and it’s been similar story in emerging markets. The laggards have been the “sleeping giants” of China and India. Meanwhile, bond market action has been more volatile. So, what are the key questions?
- Top of the list is Federal Reserve policy. Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, but is he serious about a September rate hike? If so, how would markets react?
- Worries over “deficits forever” have sparked volatility in government bond markets, but real yields and term premia are “back to normal”. Could it tempt investors back to G7 fixed income?
- Credit spreads have resisted sovereign bond volatility – but why? With fortress balance sheets, good profits, and lots of supply, investors are using high-quality credit to “diversify the diversifiers”.
- Equities have been resilient, but what could stop them? An AI wobble, geopolitics, and rising bond yields are all risks. Otherwise, the market story this summer has been about “broadening out”.
- Finally, is the debasement trade back on? The Fed backing away from hiking, possible yield caps, and deficit anxieties could all be catalysts for dollar weakness – which could be a boost for emerging markets.
Major asset class returns: 2025 and 2026 year-to-date
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Past performance does not predict future returns. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. You cannot invest directly in an index. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at September 2026.
Bond markets have been volatile recently, so what is influencing yields?
Government bond yields have been making headlines across the G7. But for investors it’s not simply the speed of the rise or the level of yields that matter – it is the reasons for the moves. In the US, real yields have driven the increase this year with the term premium also rising. Longer-term inflation expectations have picked up since late June but are still below the level seen coming into 2026. This suggests the market is pricing more than simply a renewed inflation shock: concerns about fiscal sustainability, debt supply, and geopolitical risk are increasingly leading investors to demand a greater return for holding long-dated government bonds. The bond vigilantes are getting restless.
Governments may want lower borrowing costs, but investors ultimately decide what return they need to finance them. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already sought to ease pressure on the long end of the US curve, including by increasing Treasury buybacks. The fact that yields have subsequently moved higher again is a reminder that the bond market cannot simply be managed by policymakers.
The good news is that historically, high starting yields and a steeper curve have tended to improve the prospective return from fixed income.
30-year government bond yields
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Past performance does not predict future returns. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. You cannot invest directly in an index. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at September 2026.Equity markets have been resilient over the summer – but what could stop stocks?
Equity markets have been extremely resilient recently, with stellar profits, easy financial conditions, and “deficits forever” all keeping stocks close to new highs. So, what stops them?
AI is one risk. High valuations, tech concentration, a capex wobble, financing worries, and cash flows rolling-over all need to be watched. Renewed geopolitical uncertainty is also a risk, and so is the recent move higher in longer-duration government bond yields.
Otherwise, the market story this summer has increasingly been about “broadening out”. We have seen it in “boring” parts of the market: Japan, the UK, Europe, the low-volatility factor, and other value plays. In fact, European stocks have kept pace with the US this year despite the continent’s subdued GDP growth and lack of the same deep AI exposure that the US benefits from. European earnings are now accelerating after two years of zero growth. With starting expectations and valuations lower, it potentially reinforces Europe as an “anti-bubble” market.
More generally, the global opportunity set may be widening. While AI clearly still dominates, firmer profits momentum in Europe and continued strength in parts of emerging markets is further evidence of broadening out.
Global EPS growth per cent (IBES consensus forecast)
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The commentary and analysis presented in this document reflect the opinion of HSBC Asset Management on the markets, according to the information available to date. They do not constitute any kind of commitment from HSBC Asset Management. Consequently, HSBC Asset Management will not be held responsible for any investment or disinvestment decision taken on the basis of the commentary and/or analysis in this document. Any forecast, projection or target where provided is indicative only and is not guaranteed in any way. HSBC Asset Management accepts no liability for any failure to meet such forecast, projection or target. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Past performance does not predict future returns. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. You cannot invest directly in an index. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. Source: HSBC Asset Management as at September 2026.Market Data
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. For informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to invest in the specific country, product, strategy, sector, or security. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index. Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 August 2026. (*) Indices expressed as total returns. All others are price returns.
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Total return includes income from dividends and interest as well as appreciation or depreciation in the price of an asset over the given period. Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index. Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 August 2026.
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Past performance does not predict future returns. The level of yield is not guaranteed and may rise or fall in the future. This information shouldn’t be considered as a recommendation to invest in the country or sector shown. Index returns assume reinvestment of all distributions and do not reflect fees or expenses. You cannot invest directly in an index. Sources: Bloomberg, HSBC Asset Management. Data as at close of business 31 August 2026.Important Information
Basis of Views and Definitions of ‘Asset class positioning’ tables
- Views are based on regional HSBC Asset Management Asset Allocation meetings held throughout August 2026, HSBC Asset Management’s long-term expected return forecasts which were generated as at 30 July 2026, our portfolio optimisation process and actual portfolio positions.
- Icons: ⭡ View on this asset class has been upgraded – No change 🠗 View on this asset class has been downgraded.
- Underweight, overweight and neutral classifications are the high-level asset allocations tilts applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios, which reflect a combination of our long-term valuation signals, our shorter-term cyclical views and actual positioning in portfolios. The views are expressed with reference to global portfolios. However, individual portfolio positions may vary according to mandate, benchmark, risk profile and the availability and riskiness of individual asset classes in different regions.
- “Overweight” implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) a positive tilt towards the asset class.
- “Underweight” implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks, HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would) have a negative tilt towards the asset class.
- “Neutral” implies that, within the context of a well-diversified typically multi-asset portfolio, and relative to relevant internal or external benchmarks HSBC Global Asset Management has (or would have) neither a particularly negative or positive tilt towards the asset class.
- For global investment-grade corporate bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, USD investment-grade corporate bonds and EUR and GBP investment-grade corporate bonds are determined relative to the global investment-grade corporate bond universe.
- For Asia ex Japan equities, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the region at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, individual country views are determined relative to the Asia ex Japan equities universe as of 30 July 2026.
- Similarly, for EM government bonds, the underweight, overweight and neutral categories for the asset class at the aggregate level are also based on high-level asset allocation considerations applied in diversified, typically multi-asset portfolios. However, EM Asian Fixed income views are determined relative to the EM government bonds (hard currency) universe as of 31 August 2026.
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Content ID: D077718_V1.0; Expiry Date: 01.09.2027